A mere two months prior when the Villa attacker found himself on the pitch at Sunderland, looking confused while the Villa manager admonished him over failing to anticipate a through-ball. Back then, as Villa failed to win in six, the question was if his displays were a symptom or the reason for Villa's broader struggles.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
This weekend, though, the manager's outburst was much more joyous. After the in-form star curled home his second strike to reclaim the lead for Villa, the Spanish tactician tore off his winter coat, opened his arms and roared. Villa were on their way to ten wins in a row , having failed to win their initial half-dozen fixtures, are somehow a mere three points behind table-toppers Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Legitimate Challengers?
This is an exceptionally difficult proposition to address. Past precedent, the traditional standing of the club, argues against it. Furthermore, their performances haven't been entirely convincing during this run, despite the fact the positive results have accumulated.
According to statistical analysis, twice all season has the team had an xG significantly higher than the other team. For a club who have just won ten consecutive victories, they appear curiously susceptible – yet at the moment the tight outcomes are falling their way.
The Reliant Strategy
The current approach seems to be to exchange chances with rivals and wait for their star man to bail them out with some crisp finishes. This occurred away to Leeds, it transpired at West Ham, and it happened when facing Manchester United.
His opener came from a superb shot, curled precisely inside the upright from the edge of the area. The follow-up goal proved to be a slightly less clean iteration of his first as he pounced on a pass from Watkins.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
Can It Last?
Logic says not. Against United, the opposition managed more efforts and more efforts on goal. The team has secured their last eight victories by the narrowest of margins. They’ve conceded in nearly all of those games.
Regression to the mean may well be the most significant challenge they have to face over the coming weeks. Rogers, surely, cannot maintain thrashing the ball into the top corner indefinitely.
A Case for Belief
Could it be a different scenario in which, instead of results trending towards performances, performances begin to trend towards results. Important figures might still find their top level.
- Ollie Watkins may begin to finding the net regularly.
- The attacking talent could transform into the force he was during his peak.
- The defensive duo are due to return from injury, strengthening a periodically leaky defensive unit.
This could contain the possibility for a sustained push, but they surely can persist in leaning entirely on Morgan Rogers.
Enjoying the Ride
But then, this was unforeseen. Nobody thought Aston Villa would be third at Christmas. And most definitely two months ago, nobody thought the young forward now would be spearheading a championship pursuit while establishing himself as an essential player for the national team.
This winning streak should be enjoyed exactly since it seems so surreal. When the match-winner positioned himself before the Villa faithful after the match conducting the cheers, he appeared to be relishing every moment. As he deserves to. Such periods do not happen often and should be relished.
